As market participants have said, the rhythm of black varieties now is like a small boat in a huge wave, capsizing at will. Industry insiders say that this kind of sharp rise and fall market reflects the inherent contradictions in the market. Originally, this year's bull market was initiated by the supply side and maintained a strong black trend. However, towards the end of the year, with weak supply and demand, the market became confused about the future trend.
Recently, both rebar and iron ore have hit new highs, followed by a collective limit down, which is the result of multiple factors working together. The new round of tightening policies in the real estate market, represented by Shanghai and Tianjin, has exceeded market expectations, and the real estate market is facing cooling pressure. In addition, on November 29, the decline of China's 10-year treasury bond bond futures once reached 0.81%, a big drop since its listing; Shibor (Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate) has risen across the board for the 15th consecutive trading day, and some people have used the term "money shortage" to describe the current capital market. Recently, market liquidity has significantly tightened, and the cost of capital continues to increase.
Since the beginning of this year, long and short funds have been constantly playing a game, which has also made the 'asset shortage' and 'fund shortage' vividly displayed in the futures market. In the first half of the year, the asset shortage triggered the reallocation of funds, bringing about significant fluctuations in the futures market. Recently, most commodities in the domestic futures market have fallen sharply, which is not unrelated to the recent money shortage in the capital market and the resulting rise in interest rates and sharp decline in the bond market, "the analyst said in an interview with the Huaxia Times.
And with the continuous measures taken by the exchange to cool down the market, such as the implementation of a daily opening limit system for rebar in the previous period, Dashang Exchange has increased the low trading margin and limit up/down range for iron ore. These measures accelerate the withdrawal of funds from the futures market. Taking coke futures contracts as an example, in terms of capital flow, there was a significant inflow of funds in April, with holdings increasing to 361000 lots; 5. Funds continued to flow out in June, with holdings dropping to 160000 lots; From July to October, funds showed another inflow trend; There was a sharp decrease in November. As of November 28th, the total position of coke contracts reached 230000 lots, a significant decrease of 115% from 494000 lots at the end of last month. Not only is the futures market difficult to trade now, but even steel mills' quotes lack continuity. Today, they just raised the price by 150 yuan/ton, and tomorrow they may lower it by another 100 yuan/ton. Faced with the huge intraday fluctuations of black commodities, some investors in the futures market are increasingly nostalgic for the small fluctuations of several dozen points in the past day. It's not like the price that might have hit the daily limit up at the beginning of tonight's night trading, but the next day, for some unknown reason, it turned into a limit down again Mr. Wang from the futures market stated in an interview with reporters.